The European Commission has published the first CBAM certificate price for Q1 2026 at €75.36 per tonne of CO₂. In 2026, CBAM certificate prices are published quarterly. From 2027, they are expected to move to a weekly basis. The definitive CBAM regime started on 1 January 2026, while the actual purchase of certificates begins from February 2027 to cover 2026 imports. For importers and traders, this means that carbon now has an official reference price that can be built into landed-cost models for CBAM goods entering the EU. (European Commission)
CBAM currently covers six sectors: cement, aluminium, fertilisers, iron and steel, hydrogen and electricity. For companies active in aluminium, clinker and cement supply chains — where petroleum coke is a key production input — the publication of the first certificate price is not just a regulatory update. It is a commercial input. Detailed implementing rules, benchmarks and default values for the definitive period have already been published by the Commission, which means the pricing framework is now much more concrete than it was during the transition phase. (European Commission)
Carbon is becoming part of landed cost
For many import flows, the practical question is no longer whether CBAM matters, but how much it adds per tonne and how that affects sourcing decisions. A buyer comparing two non-EU suppliers may see the same base commodity price, but the delivered economics can diverge once embedded emissions, applicable benchmarks, and any carbon price already paid in the country of origin are taken into account. The first published CBAM certificate price gives the market a usable reference point for those calculations. (European Commission)
Both aluminium and clinker/cement rely on petroleum coke at critical points in their production chains. In aluminium smelting, anode-grade petroleum coke is calcined and formed into carbon anodes that are consumed during electrolysis, releasing approximately 1.5 tCO₂ per tonne of aluminium in direct process emissions alone. In clinker manufacturing, fuel-grade petroleum coke is widely used as a kiln fuel due to its high calorific value and cost efficiency, contributing directly to combustion-related CO₂ emissions alongside the process emissions from limestone calcination. This shared reliance on petroleum coke makes CBAM pricing especially relevant for participants across both value chains.
Basic gross calculations: illustrative burden in EUR per tonne
The simplest starting point is:
Gross CBAM cost per tonne of product = embedded emissions (tCO₂/t) × €75.36
The examples below are illustrative only. They are not legal benchmarks or Commission default values. They are simple pricing scenarios to show the order of magnitude.
| Product | Illustrative embedded emissions | Gross CBAM cost at €75.36 |
| Aluminium | 8.0 tCO₂/t | €602.88/t |
| Clinker / cement | 0.7 tCO₂/t | €52.75/t |
At this level, the first conclusion is straightforward. Aluminium is the most carbon-sensitive on a per-tonne basis, and clinker/cement looks lower in absolute €/t terms. However, even a lower €/t burden can be commercially material in cement and clinker because margins are often tighter and the product value per tonne is lower. With cement typically trading at €80–120/t in European markets, a full gross burden of ~€53/t would represent a significant share of the delivered price.
Why the final 2026 burden may be below the headline number
For 2026, the payable CBAM burden is not always equal to the full gross calculation above. The Commission has explained that the calculation has three main elements:
- embedded emissions,
- free allocation adjustment,
- carbon price already paid in a third country, where applicable.
(European Commission)
The Commission’s published example gives the following formula for 2026, before considering any carbon price already paid in the country of origin:
Emissions subject to CBAM = embedded emissions – CBAM benchmark × CBAM factor
In the Commission’s example, if embedded emissions are 1.2 tCO₂/t product, the relevant benchmark is 1.0 tCO₂/t, and the 2026 CBAM factor is 97.5%, then emissions subject to CBAM equal:
1.2 – 1.0 × 0.975 = 0.225 tCO₂/t
That is only around 19% of the embedded emissions. At the Q1 2026 certificate price of €75.36, the corresponding burden is:
0.225 × 75.36 = €16.96/t product
(European Commission)
This is an important commercial point. The headline gross number is still useful for market discussions and stress testing. But the 2026 payable number may be materially lower, depending on the product benchmark and the free allocation adjustment applicable to that good.
Deduction for carbon price paid in the country of origin
The Commission has also clarified that an authorised declarant may claim a reduction in the number of certificates to be surrendered for a carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin, subject to the applicable rules and evidence requirements. (European Commission)
A simplified illustration helps show the direction of travel. If, in the Commission example above, the importer could substantiate an effective carbon price of €10/tCO₂ already paid on the same 0.225 tCO₂/t quantity, the reduction would be about €2.25/t, bringing the indicative burden down from €16.96/t to roughly €14.71/t. This is only a simplified pricing illustration, not a legal calculation, but it shows why sourcing economics will increasingly depend on both emissions data and evidence of carbon costs already paid outside the EU.
What does this mean for aluminium and cement specifically?
Aluminium carries the highest gross CBAM exposure of the two sectors at ~€603/t on illustrative embedded emissions of 8.0 tCO₂/t. The actual 2026 burden will be reduced by the applicable benchmark and the 97.5% free allocation factor, but even the adjusted figure is meaningful against current aluminium prices of €2,200–2,400/t. Importers sourcing primary aluminium from regions with carbon-intensive power grids and no domestic carbon price will face the widest gap between gross and net CBAM cost. Conversely, suppliers that can document lower actual emissions or evidence of a carbon price already paid in the country of origin become commercially more attractive.
Clinker and cement show a lower absolute gross burden (~€53/t), but the relative impact is higher. When the product itself trades at €80–120/t, even a modest net CBAM cost can shift the economics of cross-border flows. In practice, this means that non-EU clinker exporters to the EU will face increasing pressure to provide verified emissions data and to demonstrate competitive carbon intensity — particularly where fuel-grade petroleum coke is a major component of the kiln fuel mix.
What this means for the EU market
For the EU market, the first published certificate price does three things.
First, it turns carbon from an abstract policy issue into a visible cost parameter. Importers can now model CBAM exposure alongside freight, duties, financing and working capital.
Second, it will gradually influence supplier selection. Over time, EU buyers are likely to place greater value on suppliers that can provide reliable emissions data, competitive production routes, and documented evidence of any carbon price already paid in the country of origin.
Third, it is likely to affect contract structure. Quarter-specific pricing, CBAM pass-through clauses, data warranties, and clearer allocation of reporting responsibility will become more important, especially in aluminium and mineral products where cross-border flows are regular and contract chains are long.
Conclusion
The first CBAM certificate price does not yet tell the whole story, but it gives the market something it did not have before: an official carbon reference price for Q1 2026 imports into the EU.
For aluminium and clinker/cement — two sectors where petroleum coke is embedded in the production process — the message is clear. Commodity pricing into the EU can no longer be assessed on product price and freight alone. It now also depends on embedded emissions, the relevant adjustment framework in 2026, and whether a carbon price has already been paid and can be properly evidenced.
For importers and traders, the practical task is now to separate headline price from carbon-adjusted landed cost. That is where CBAM begins to matter commercially.
Source: European Commission, “Price of CBAM certificates” — https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism/price-cbam-certificates_en
Supporting official references: CBAM sectors and legislation; Commission implementing rules and guidance on benchmarks, free allocation adjustment and carbon price paid in the country of origin.
Prime Elements GmbH — Commodity trading and logistics across petroleum coke, petrochemicals and fuels. www.prmelements.io
